Marginal call
An equity estimate exactly matching required equity produces approximately zero EV before rounding.
Poker Expected Value Calculator
Model expected value from the current decision with folding set to zero. The poker EV calculator separates call, fold, and called-bet branches so the displayed number is net profit per decision rather than the gross pot won.
Expected value by decision branch
Folding is the zero-EV baseline. When rake is enabled, it is removed from every collected pot; an uncalled bet is not raked.
How the result is built
Expected Value Is the Weighted Sum of Every Branch
Each branch shows net profit after the action cost, then the engine weights it by that branch's probability.
Bet 75 into 100
Opponent folds40%weighted contribution: +40
Opponent calls60%conditional net: −12.5
Fold branch contribution+40
Called branch contribution−7.5
Total bet EV+32.5
Call EV comparison+10
Call EV returns a net number
Equity multiplies the net final pot, then the new call is subtracted. This formulation already accounts for receiving your call back on winning outcomes.
A bet has mutually exclusive branches
When the opponent folds, the current pot is won. When called, showdown equity applies to the pot after both bets. Weighting those branch values produces total bet EV.
Model assumptions matter more than decimals
Equity when called and fold frequency are estimates. Correlation with ranges, future streets, raises, and changing bet sizes are outside the simplified heads-up model.
Worked examples
Profitable bluff with no showdown equity
Set called equity to zero; enough folds may still make the weighted bet EV positive.
Frequently asked questions
What is the EV baseline?
Folding now is assigned zero, so positive EV is better than folding under the model.
Why subtract the call only once?
The equity share of the final pot already includes receiving that contribution back when you win.
Can a negative called branch yield positive bet EV?
Yes, if the fold branch contributes enough value.
Does positive EV guarantee a win?
No. EV is a repeated-decision average, not a promise for one outcome.