Pot-sized river bet
The model permits one bluff per two value combinations, so bluffs are one third of the betting range.
Poker Bluff-to-Value Ratio Calculator
Calculate the bluff-to-value ratio for a simplified polar river bet. The result includes bluff share of the betting range and the caller’s break-even equity, with the final-street assumptions kept visible.
River polar bluff-to-value model
River only: heads-up polar range, value always wins, bluffs have zero equity when called, and the opponent only calls or folds; raises and rake are excluded.
How the result is built
A River Bet Contains Value Hands and Bluffs
This polar river toy game divides a betting range into value combinations and zero-equity bluffs. It has no future street or raise branch.
- Value combinations 66.7%
- Bluff combinations 33.3%
Current pot100
River bet100
Bluffs per value hand0.5
Caller break-even equity33.33%
| Model condition | Included |
|---|---|
| River | Yes |
| Polar range | Yes |
| Future action | No |
| Raises | No |
Ratio is not bluff percentage
Bluff:value compares combo counts directly. Bluff share divides bluffs by the entire betting range, so the two percentages use different denominators.
The river removes future realization
With no cards to come, a polar model can balance value and zero-equity bluffs around the caller’s price. Earlier streets retain future equity and cannot use this formula unchanged.
Construction still needs combinations
The output provides a target ratio, not the actual bluffs. Blockers, available value combos, and strategic objectives decide which hands enter each group.
Worked examples
Small river bet
A smaller price supports fewer bluffs relative to value because the caller needs less equity.
Frequently asked questions
Why do bluff share and bluff:value differ?
One divides by all bets; the other divides only by value combinations.
Can I use this on the flop?
Not directly. Future cards give bluffs and value hands additional equity.
Does the tool select bluff combos?
No. It calculates counts and shares from sizing.
Is caller break-even equity the same as bluff share?
They are equal in this particular polar river model.